Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the spread % Population

Everyone looks at corona figures on the internet and in the news. and gets scared and confused by them, all figures out there are absolute amounts. but Lets have a look at the meaning of the official figures and the meaning for you as citizen in the area / country where you live. Wat we are interested in is what is happening, and what is our risk, to know this we have to look at the figures in % of effect on the population.

here is a spreadsheet that does exactly that. (Figures from WHO/Worldometer)

All these numbers do not tell the story. but when you put them in a graph / country suddenly they tell a lot.

Singapore as dense Urban Population among the highest effected countries in the world

Death toll very low due to most effected people where in Dormitories. (Dense populated accommodations foreign workers) Yong and strong, And an excellent Healthcare system.

United states and the Netherlands high % Death,

In the US, they intentionally under count. They don’t test people that may have gotten the virus through community transmission or suspected cases, and they don’t proactively identify and test people that may have been exposed to that person. Shortly after the pandemic started to grow in the US, the CDC was instructed not to share testing info or communicate directly with the public or state public health agencies. Presumably, the objective is to “keep the numbers down”.

The practical upshot is that they under-count the infected and only count the deaths accurately, so the mortality rate in the US appears artificially high.

Since in some countries, the do this differently. we have an idea on the actual mortality rate , and they can estimate the actual number infections based on the number of deaths and the lag time between infection an death. It’s less accurate, and we lose track of community spread, but we aren’t completely blind.

in the Netherlands, Unlike in Singapore and many other countries, Testing is voluntary and only asked for when really sick.

The mortality rate in the Netherlands therefor appears artificially high.

Three-quarters of patients that have died in the Netherlands were in nursing homes or at home. But this isn’t necessarily a criticism — it’s actually a part of Dutch approach to palliative care. (See Note 2)

Note 1:

How does mortality differ across countries?

One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:

• Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.

• Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.

• Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.

• Other factors, many of which remain unknown.

Note 2:

Palliative care is focused on improving the quality of life for a person who is suffering from a life-threatening illness. The aim is to decrease suffering and painful symptoms and provide “social, psychological and spiritual support” so that patients do not spend the last few weeks of their life in a hospital hooked up to machines.

The patient has the right to choose this procedure, and the Netherlands is renowned for offering high standards of palliative care to patients.